ABSTRACT
A careful examination of global trends, like the one we undertook in Chapter 2, contributes considerably toward helping us understand where change is taking us. We saw in that chapter, however, that it is not a trivial matter to extrapolate trends into the future. For instance, it is often far from clear whether a trend will follow an exponential growth path, trace an S-shaped curve, or peak and decline. Our examination of trends often forced us to make some additional assumptions about the world. In short, our ability to separate trend extrapolation and causal analysis may not be as great as we initially suggested. In reality, trend extrapolation inevitably takes place within the context of a broader understanding of the world around us. We bring an understanding of that world, a mental map or model of it, to any investigation of trends.
