ABSTRACT
The military balance between Israel and its immediate neighbors is remarkably stable. While it is possible to postulate a Syrian surprise attack that might achieve limited initial gains or a breakdown in the peace process, Israel retains a major defensive “edge” in tactics, technology, and training. There are obvious dangers in trying to summarize the complex dynamics of military developments in the Arab-Israeli balance and their impact on the peace process. The nations in the region also are already taking a “peace dividend”—although one those events have forced on Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya, and one that has been financed by the US in the cases of Egypt and Israel. Conflicts outside Israel and the Arab “ring states” can suddenly involve Israel and/or its neighbors with little warning and in highly unstable and confusing contingencies. Israeli nuclear capabilities are only a game-theoretic threat to Egypt, Jordan, and the moderate Gulf states.
