ABSTRACT

Any strategy towards Iraq must recognize the fact that it will remain a revanchist state as long as it is under the control of Saddam Hussein or other members of its present ruling elite. Iraq has already attempted to assassinate former President Bush, has systematically resisted the UN's efforts to destroy its capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction, has backed the People's Mujahideen in attacks on Iran, and has repeatedly infiltrated the Kuwaiti border. While Iraq has since appeared to recognize Kuwait and the new border, there is little doubt that it has done so as a tactical move. Iraq will continue to try violate the UN sanctions whenever this seems possible and to resume its military build-up the moment that sanctions on dual-use and military imports are ended. At the same time, a realistic policy must recognize that the success of military containment will always be relative.