ABSTRACT
Many skeptics love to cite the dreadful 1948 election predictions to bolster their argument that polling is crude witch-craft that seldom hits its target. The allegations are unjust because, frankly, 1948 was a long time ago when scientific polling was in its infancy and survey research methodology was unrefined. Comparing poll results for different polling organizations is difficult because polls were not necessarily conducted on the same dates, questions were not exactly the same, and reporting of results was not uniform. Despite the pollsters' admirable record in predicting Gore's winning percentage, they did even better in predicting the popular vote percentage that Bush would get. Contrary to what was found for the gubernatorial predictions, where the major polling firms outperformed the local ones, in calling the presidential results in the states the local polling companies easily "outpredicted" the major organizations.
