ABSTRACT
This chapter examines projections of the population of the United States, concentrating on recent projections by the US Bureau of the Census. Population projections can be made using a variety of methods, including: simple extrapolations of past patterns; methods based on economic models, which use employment patterns to predict population change; multidimensional demographic models; and numerous other methods. Most population projections, however, rely on a method called the Cohort-Component Projection Method. Population growth in the United States will be increasingly dependent on immigration. Aging of the population will be substantial over time but will occur most rapidly after the baby-boomers have reached elderly ages. Aging is one of the characteristics of the future population of the United States that is unlikely to be altered. Differentials in immigration are as important as differences in fertility in explaining the differentials in rates of growth among racial/ethnic groups.
