ABSTRACT
This chapter presents a framework for addressing risks that is designed around the concept of resilience. It addresses how unfortunate chains of events (CEs) can lead to large losses of life and even our own extinction. Singular Chains of Events Scenarios are introduced as a tool to better understand CEs. In common with CEs, scenarios are the primary analytic method proposed to help us better understands Unanticipated-unintended consequences. Here are four scenario approaches that are especially appropriate for generating this content: Evolution-Over-Time Scenarios; Market-Saturation Scenarios; Interventions in Tightly Coupled Systems Scenarios; and Existential-Risk-of-Human-Extinction Scenarios. Market-saturation scenarios depict the ways in which a scientific or technological action could play out if the science or technology completely saturates a market. In tightly coupled systems scenarios, the event represents the change in a key node in a tightly coupled system or the addition of a new node that immediately establishes connections to key nodes.
