ABSTRACT
Although most of 2018 followed a trend of decreasing attacks and fatalities, the main active insurgency group, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), carried out a string of bombings at the end of December. The surge in attacks was the BRN’s response to efforts by the Thai armed forces and Malaysia to force it into negotiations, with Kuala Lumpur threatening BRN leaders to join talks or lose their safe havens in Malaysia. The Malay ethno-nationalist insurgency and its rejection of assimilation into the Thai state has driven decades of conflict in southern Thailand. Separatists seek independence of the region covered by the former kingdom of Patani, spanning the Thai provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani, and parts of northern Malaysia. The Royal Thai Armed Forces has historically played a prominent role in Thailand’s politics and often dominated defence policy, including the counter-insurgency campaigns in the south and control of the negotiations process under the current government.
