ABSTRACT
Climate change is a high-probability, high-impact security threat that will continue to accelerate over the coming decades, with a wide range of implications for the geostrategic environment. The science of how the climate will continue to change over the coming decades provides a sound basis for risk assessment – far more so than information used to assess other factors affecting global security, such as nuclear threats or changes in the balance of geopolitical power. The humanitarian crisis has been precipitated by flagrant violations of international humanitarian and human-rights law by the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition. The actions of conflict parties have compounded the effect of Yemen’s history of water insecurity, which is linked to chronic aridity, resource mismanagement, poor water infrastructure and growing demand from a soaring population, which nearly quadrupled between 1975 and 2010. Long-term climate trends and near-term climate variability are also making livelihoods from fishing, agriculture and livestock herding more uncertain and less tenable.
