ABSTRACT
The systemic risks of today and yesterday are unlikely to be the triggering factors of the systemic dangers of tomorrow, as markets shift, technologies change and firms innovate. The G20-FSB-SSB architecture will be measured not just by whether it has made banks safer – it has – but by the extent to which it can identify future risks and take steps to ameliorate them. In 2020 the architecture created in 2009 faced a real-world test of vast proportions: the economic catastrophe caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. How should we judge that initial response? The G20 appears to be failing to lead and failing the test of 2020. But state authority and power are being extended state by state. Massive national fiscal interventions are underway. And the central bank community is coordinating a vast monetary and financial markets response. Looking beyond the immediate severe tragic health and economic crises the central bank community is constructing new architecture to deal with another key risk – climate change – a third-order jump. The FSB process in addition continues to operate as a risk monitoring and analysis forum on digital currency risks, cloud computing risks, AI risks and shadow banking risks. But any paradigm shift has its limits beyond which action is not possible, and the community’s collective vision is blurry. Danger remains, risks will gestate and central banking and supervisory vigilance is required.
