ABSTRACT
In science as well as in everyday life, the people make non-deductive inferences all the time. Science is a risky business in another way. Scientists often try to reach conclusions about universal laws. Science is an ambitious enterprise. Science ventures beyond what is strictly observed in the here and now, just as the conclusion in a non-deductive argument ventures beyond the information strictly contained in the premises. Gregor Mendel was an experimental biologist who worked in a monastery in Moravia. Scientists often test their theories by seeing whether the predictions made by the theories come true. The point of the examples about the unconscious patient and the weight lifter was to show why successful prediction doesn’t automatically provide strong evidence. The Surprise Principle shows when an observation strongly favors one hypothesis over another. In summary, the Surprise Principle gives advice on what a hypothesis must do if it is to be strongly supported by the predictions it makes.
