ABSTRACT
Just as the industry experiences cycles in past financial performance, so does the optimism of forecasters and commentators oscillate even more widely. This depends on where in the cycle the predictions are made. In the midst of the early 1980s downturn, dire predictions were being made on the ability of the industry to finance expected growth. A similar prognosis was being offered in the early 1990s, but before the forecasters had decided to make downwards adjustments in their demand forecasts, traffic had picked up and profitability had returned to the industry. IATA was then in a better position to issue warnings of impending constraints from the lack of airport and ATC capacity. 1 The terrorist attacks of 9/11 converted the downturn into a major slump, the consequences of which while obviously very severe in the USA, also spread to other world regions. Since then a major recession occurred mainly due to the banking crisis and coronavirus. The banking crisis hit international trade and commerce badly and too a few years to bounce back, and the coronavirus’s impact was unprecedented, hit both by an economic slump as well as banning flights and imposing quarantine.
