ABSTRACT
A group of marine accidents is related to the fact that ships may operate in restricted waterways and be exposed to other marine traffic. A vessel may drift or be set off from the intended course or due to maneuvering error ground or strand. There are also other forms of control error that may lead to this kind of accident. Similarly, lack of control may lead to collision with another vessel. Analysis of so-called traffic accidents is based on the following assumption, namely, that the vessel has lost control (error probability) and is subject to the risk of hitting an obstruction (geometric probability). Studies of marine traffic and accidents for seaways for extended periods have given the basis for estimating these probabilities. The model concept is influenced by several factors like vessel standard (technology and manning), seaway conditions, traffic pattern, environment (weather and sea), and aids in navigation. It is a characteristic of marine traffic accidents that the dominant causal factors are human and organizational factors (HOF) that stand for 70–90%. Risk studies incorporating these factors may be applied to estimate the effect of alternative risk control measures.
