ABSTRACT
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) have been seized upon in recent years as the last best hope of arms control. They are presented as addressing the real issue, fear of surprise attack, rather than the more artificial question of force levels. The focus is on the factors that actually shape each side's perceptions, and on providing evidence of a lack of menace. The furtherance of arms control became linked to the improvement and refinement of the means of verification, so that more could be watched continuously and in greater detail than before. When the Carter administration decided to move to a mobile basing mode for its new MX ICBM, it was accepted that verifiability had to be a design feature, despite the actual purpose of using a form of deception to ensure survival in a surprise attack. The East has been less enthusiastic about this approach. It has suggested only a slight reduction in the threshold level for manoeuvres.
