ABSTRACT
The hubris risk factor in this chapter is unbridled intuition. The chapter discusses the psychology of intuition, and why and how intuition can sometimes get it wrong and at other times get it right in consequential decision-making. The effects of unbridled intuition are illustrated with the case study of President George W. Bush and his decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The relationship between intuition and heuristics and biases and its role in over-confidence in decision-making are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how exposure to the downsides of intuition can be avoided and what the early warning signs of unbridled intuition are.
