ABSTRACT
Firms in the service sector, an important source of economic growth in many economies, experience reductions in economic activity while manufacturing and the volume of global trade also decline. The economic fallout from the Great Lockdown depends on several factors, including the pathway of the pandemic, disruptions in supply, efficacy, and intensity of methods of intervention, changing global market conditions, and behavioral effects. Global economic flows occur in observable patterns, such as exports from one country to others. The long-term outcome is an empirical question and subject to investigation. Certain areas of global exchange, such as trade and production, may recover slowly while monetary flows recover quickly. The nature of the shock determines the length and severity of the global economic downturn. The shock associated with a global pandemic amplifies through familiar channels. Early indicators warn of future economic disruptions.
