ABSTRACT
After having explored the dependent variable, the research framework, and the intra-party and external determinants, Chapter 4 is devoted to the empirical analysis. Its results are summarised as follows: both intra-party factors (such as leadership changes or the control of the party by the leader) and also external factors (e.g., electoral defeats) influence party leader selectorate openings. Surprisingly, some factors considered as important by the literature do not exert any significant impact on the dependent variable. Conversely, some others do have an effect, but it is the opposite of the hypothesised one. Moreover, both the party change framework and the personalisation of politics work together to reach a more comprehensive explanation of the openings of party leader selectorates. The chapter also situates the empirical findings in the broader literature and focuses on possible future strands of research related to party leader selection rules.
