ABSTRACT
Overconfidence turns up again and again in every setting that psychologists have investigated. Overconfidence leads to risk seeking and too much risky activity. Too much terrorism, from the terrorist’s point of view, is terrorism beyond the point at which expected payoffs begin to decline. One possible reason for the difference in the outcomes achieved by the Zebra Killers on the one hand and the BLA on the other is their relative degrees of overconfidence.
