ABSTRACT
This chapter assesses the likely political consequences to Northern Ireland of the UK leaving the EU. In terms of politics, it argues that Brexit is likely to have a profound impact not only on the internal politics of Northern Ireland, but also on how the Belfast Agreement functions in the future. The chapter explains how Strand 1 of the Agreement simultaneously gave rise to a nascent political bargain in Northern Ireland based on a peculiar combination of a ‘politics of deterrence’ coalition between the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein and an informal process of economic and social modernization. It also argues that Brexit delivered a hammer blow to this emerging internal political bargain: although the deterrence coalition between nationalism and unionism was fraying it is argued that Brexit pushed Northern Ireland close to what is termed an Ulster war of attrition.
