ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on some of the most commonly used methods belonging to several categories of analysis, including sensitivity analysis, networks, simulation, probabilistic risk assessments and methods for assessing vulnerability and resilience. It discusses techniques for event identification, which is a special and important category of risk assessment methods. The chapter reviews basic ideas and theory concerning such analysis and explains the difference between sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The sensitivity analysis provides a basis for an uncertainty analysis with respect to the commodity price. Bayesian networks are commonly used for quantitative analysis. They require that we specify a set of conditional probabilities. With a Monte Carlo simulation model, the time aspect and component dependencies are more easily handled than with an analytical method. The chapter presents a vulnerability assessment for the COVID-19 pandemic, conducted early March 2020, illustrating the issues raised previously concerning modeling and analysis and in particular how these relate to the elements of the vulnerability characterization.
