ABSTRACT
In the 1930s, the Nazis and Japanese military lied consistently about their military preparations. The Germans underestimated the tonnage and hence power of their battleships. The nuclear scientists involved in the Manhattan Project had created verification problems which the politicians found it impossible to solve in the 1950s but several of the scientists’ subsequent developments gave governments help. Not surprisingly the Western powers have subsequently refused to sign major arms control treaties without adequate verification. Little heralded as this is, it is a democratic revolution reinforcing the West’s official verification capability for nuclear and other weapons. Were total nuclear disarmament achieved without adequate verification, there would be a pervasive atmosphere of suspicion and the situation would become unstable. Minimum, stable deterrence might deter a restless, newly industrialised power like China. Thus, the history of the Cold War and other confrontations suggests that relations between the great powers will eventually improve.
