ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses in some detail the element of luck as it pertains to team performance, focusing first on the importance of the toss and then the extent to which match results are due to ability and/or to luck. The importance of the toss is analysed employing Bayes’ Theorem which draws a distinction between the prior probability of an event happening before the data have been observed (say, winning a match prior to the toss) and the posterior probability which updates one’s prior belief after observing the data (winning a match after the outcome of the toss is known). It then suggests a method, based on the Binomial Theorem, for identifying the roles that luck and ability play in determining the probability of a team winning a match.
