ABSTRACT
It is not necessary to deal so fully with the Section’s part in the budgets of the 1950s. The role of its members was already well established. It was they who prepared for the Budget Committee a succession of forecasts of economic prospects over the year ahead and it was to Robert Hall that the Committee looked for a judgement of the scale on which taxation should be added to or remitted. The forecasts became more elaborate and moved from year-on-year comparisons to predictions of the situation twelve months ahead based on quarterly data. The judgements continued to be based on Keynesian analysis, which neither the Treasury members of the Budget Committee nor the Chancellor, with their aversion to budget deficits, fully understood or accepted. Other instruments of policy than the budget continued to play an important part in the management of the economy. The last word inevitably rested with the Chancellor, who might (and did on occasion) reject the advice offered whether by the Economic Adviser or by the Budget Committee.
