ABSTRACT
The intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and proliferation of the latest military technology in Northeast, Southeast and South Asia, and their interactions across Asia as a whole, suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. Northeast Asia has been involved in a sustained build-up of defence capabilities for three decades, scarcely affected by economic troubles. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. Southeast Asian governments will increasingly face crucial foreign-policy challenges. Asymmetries in Asia’s regional and sub-regional balances of power could influence the prospects for conflict or peace. China’s willingness to use its growing power to achieve geopolitical gains is the single most important change in the region’s geopolitical circumstances since the 1990s.
