ABSTRACT
Having described the RNR model in the last chapter, we transition to the prediction and classification of risk. The following three questions are asked: (1) How well can criminal behavior be predicted? (2) What can we do with that knowledge in order to reduce the chances of criminal Acts occurring? and (3) To what extent do the Central Eight risk/need factors apply to age, gender, and race?
The reader is first introduced to some of the challenges in making valid and reliable predictions of criminal behavior (e.g., false positives, low base rates). Nevertheless, there has been progress in the development of risk/needs assessments that are presently fourth generational. Fourth-generation assessments combine knowledge of the likelihood of future crime (i.e., recidivism) with knowledge of what is needed to reduce the chances of criminal behavior re-occurring.
The Central Eight looms large in the new risk/need instruments. Every third- and fourth-generation assessment includes the measurement of the Central Eight. Not only does the Central Eight apply to gender, age, and minorities but also to those with serious mental disorders and those who commit violent crimes.
