ABSTRACT

In this chapter we use our climate model to assess the effects of different scenarios on both climate change and air quality. Replacing coal-fired power stations alone will not reduce global warming because of the associated reductions in aerosols which contribute to global cooling. Phasing out both coal and gas-fired power stations will not have an immediate impact on global warming even when gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles give way to electric mobile sources. It is only when all future scenarios are combined including reforestation that we see global warming temperatures starting to fall from a high of 1.9°C in 2034 to 1.6°C in 2050. This means that the Paris climate change target of 1.5°C will take longer to be achieved than currently anticipated. However, all aspects of air quality will improve continuously as is clearly shown by the decline in regional ozone levels and the attendant improvement in regional air quality.