ABSTRACT

Defence spending is high relative to population and GDP. Many countries face a potentially combustible mix of a young population, poor economic growth and (from already-low levels) declining freedom. The Middle East and North Africa region provided some cause for optimism during 2021–22. The Russia–Ukraine war exacerbated the global rise in food and energy prices, placing fragile populations in the region at greater risk of famine. The region’s de-escalatory trend largely continued. Saudi and Iranian security officials held five rounds of direct talks in Baghdad between April 2021 and April 2022. Iraq, Lebanon and Tunisia remained mired in political and economic crises and faced obstacles on the road to smooth political transitions. ISIS claimed responsibility for two deadly attacks by lone-wolf Palestinian militants inside Israel, including a knife attack in Beer Sheva and an attack with automatic weapons in Hadera in March 2022.