ABSTRACT
An emerging body of literature defines expertise as skilful prediction of future events, focusing on the attributes of trustworthiness of experts in terms of predicting events successfully. This is done on the level of individual experts through the study of psychological traits and on the organizational level, where learning and feedback loops are examined. Leading authors in this field are Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, and Marc Burgman. The merits and shortcomings of these approaches will be discussed.
