ABSTRACT
As the nineties unfold, the world is entering a new era, one in which it is far more difficult to expand food output. The world’s rangelands, a major source of animal protein, are also under excessive pressure. With both fisheries and rangelands being pressed to the limits of their carrying capacity, future growth in food demand can be satisfied only by expanding output from croplands. From mid-century until recently, grain output projections were for the most part simple extrapolations of trends. At the national level, the projections in Full House provide some sense of likely food production gains over the longer term. At the international level, projections suggest that the population-driven environmental deterioration/political disintegration scenario described by Robert Kaplan is not only possible; indeed, it is likely in a business-as-usual world.
