ABSTRACT
Recent data showing the level at which the rise in grain yield per hectare is slowing in the most agriculturally advanced countries provide governments with the reference points needed to estimate the population carrying capacity of their croplands. Projections of grain output are typically made by assuming a certain area and a rate of growth of yield per hectare and then simply extending it into the future. The boost in total output of 30 percent between 1990 and 2030 would increase the harvest from 290 million tons in 1990 to 377 million tons in 2030. Rapid industrialization in recent years has taken its toll on cropland as grain area has dropped from 90.8 million hectares in 1990 to an estimated 87.4 million in 1994. The potential for expanding production in the former Soviet Union is limited by relatively low rainfall, harsh winters, and a short growing season.
