ABSTRACT
Fertilizer use is projected to resume growth once the effect of subsidy reductions in key countries wears off. Although it is certain to resume an upward trend, perhaps as early as 1995, it will take many years for fertilizer use even to regain 1989 levels. Barring a marked rise in the genetic yield potential of grain varieties, US fertilizer use is unlikely to expand much in the decades ahead. To get a full picture of the changing food prospect, it is useful to sum up the assumptions regarding both oceanic and land-based food supplies. The relationship between slower growth in production and food prices is analyzed in an International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) projection that assumes that the rise in grain yield per hectare is one fourth lower than recent historical trend used in an IFPRI baseline projection. Many of the world’s people aspire to the US diet, which requires some 800 kilograms of grain per person a year.
