ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on uncertainty related to project scenarios and undesired events that could cause deviation from the preferred sequence of events: Risk, problem, and crisis. It is easier to see the risk phenomenon for what it is by considering the other sources of uncertainty discussed in the previous chapters. Therefore, event-driven uncertainty is chosen as the last chapter of Part One. Based on the discussion in the earlier chapters, it should be clear that the plan going awry is not uniquely associated with adverse events. The project plan could be botched for a variety of reasons, such as poor decisions, incorrect choice of methods, optimistic estimates, unidentified prerequisites, constraints, or dependencies.
Finding the causes of deviation from the plan requires a higher granularity than dubbing anything that goes wrong as a risk. Also, it must be acknowledged that time and budget overruns are symptoms, not the problem itself. In healthcare, high blood pressure or shortness of breath are different manifestations of underlying problems. Various illnesess may cause a composite picture of symptoms that must be uncovered, and each source of trouble must be addressed individually. This chapter will examine the elements that make up scenario-driven uncertainty: Plans, risks, problems, crises, and measures.
