ABSTRACT
Most problem solving and decision making gets complicated. The greater the number of influences relevant to the situation, the more difficult it is to keep them all straight. The first step in making a mental model is to generate some sort of mental image of the situation. Decision making involves weighing choices and predicting outcomes, and it depends to some extent on probability theory. Decision making in the formal sense can be traced to philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal, who developed what some consider to be the first decision-analysis technique, which he used to weigh the consequences of living or not living the Christian life without knowing whether God exists. Random search is sometimes called trial and error. Effective problem solvers think carefully about what kinds of problems they are dealing with and what models apply.
