ABSTRACT
As a lapsed political scientist, I have a keen appreciation for the challenges of futurists. After all, a few decades ago we believed the American model of democracy was in the ascendant and poised to spread across the globe. A few years ago we thought increasingly sophisticated quantitative systems would make election outcomes, and their explanations, more predictable. Until recently, the European Union was seen as a lasting, stable solution to that continent’s history of conflict. And these are just the prediction challenges of one discipline.
