Introduction

Study of the drivers and dynamics of violent political crisis and civil war can improve the development prospects of countries thus afflicted if it helps shift them onto a more stable trajectory. The difficulty of bringing stable and development-oriented political settlements about is a major factor that explains the frequency of violent political crises and civil war. Analysis of civil war through a political settlement lens makes it possible to link pre-conflict power structures with initial conflict parameters that influence the behavior of elite factions that constitute a political settlement, assess how they use coercive capabilities under their control and map how shifts in power during war influence post-war settlement stability. The book studies the recent civil wars in Syria and Iraq at the macro-level by analyzing the evolution of the political settlements from which they arose and connects this with a meso-level assessment of the role of four armed organizations – the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (Syria), the Eagles of the Whirlwind (Syria), the Kurdish Peshmerga (Iraq) and the Badr Organization (Iraq). The combination of these two analytical levels generates new insights into how elite factions influence prospects for re-establishing a political settlement after war through their use of coercive capabilities.