ABSTRACT
Market forces and regional dynamics are driving the shifting flows of illicit products and violence south and east in South America. The dynamics of the cocaine trade are changing, both regionally and internationally. Violence among criminal organisations is increasing and intensifying, and corruption probes continue to identify elite members of Ecuadorian law enforcement as parties to the drug trade. The rapid change in the conflicts and the illicit markets that drive violence in much of Latin America will probably continue for the foreseeable future, with cocaine likely remaining the dominant product, but with a possible increase in synthetic drugs as well. Furthermore, the region has seen the spread of ideologically agnostic authoritarian governments that rely on transnational organised crime for revenue and corrupt gains. In Central America’s Northern Triangle, the government protection can lead to violence, particularly around elections, as various criminal groups back different candidates and coalitions.
