ABSTRACT
In thus emphasising the fact that Trade Cycle theory, while it may serve as a basis for statistical research, can never itself be established by the latter, it is by no means desired to deprecate the value of the empirical method. On the contrary, there can be no doubt that Trade Cycle theory can only gain full practical importance through exact measurement of the actual course of the phenomena which it describes. The value of business forecasting depends upon correct theoretical concepts; hence there can, at the present time, be no more important task in this field than the bridging of the gulf which divides monetary from non-monetary theories. This gulf leads to differences of opinion in the front rank of economists; and is also the characteristic line of division between Trade Cycle theory in Germany and in America-where business forecasting originated.
