ABSTRACT
The following recommendations are designed to facilitate the transition to a system of moderate multipolar balancing in Asia. In such a system, key regional actors would engage in traditional balance-of-power behaviour, but their interactions would be conditioned by a common interest in war avoidance and a mutual stake in economic and diplomatic cooperation. This does not assume that a system of moderate multipolar balancing will be undergirded by an extensive network of international agreements and multilateral institutions. Relations in the Asia-Pacific region are too fluid and contingent for such arrangements, and the major participants are too jealous of their sovereignty to submit to them. Rather, a new regional order will be characterised by ad hoc forms of consultation and policy coordination facilitated by a modest infrastructure of flexible institutions like the ARF, APEC and the WTO. Regional actors will likely continue to develop their own distinct strategies and defence capabilities, knowing that they will only be able to count on US support when US interests are clearly threatened.
