ABSTRACT
The proliferation of ballistic missiles is of concern because their modest payloads, short attack times, and the current lack of adequate defences make them attractive for delivering NBC weapons. The military impact of conventionally armed ballistic missiles lies in their ability to divert a significant portion of the defender's air forces as it attempts to locate and destroy the missile launchers. The threat assessment outlined above suggests that appropriate objectives for US National Missile Defence (NMD) are protect against small intentional ballistic-missile attacks from countries to which ICBMs might proliferate in the future, and to protect against accidental or unauthorised ballistic-missile launches by any state possessing ICBMs. A controversial US National Intelligence Estimate stated that no new ballistic-missile threat would appear to the continental United States before 2010. China believes that US leaders are exaggerating the threat posed by ballistic-missile proliferation, and that the US is not particularly vulnerable because it can retaliate against any attack with devastating force.
