Introduction

I have argued that long fluctuations in rates of growth in the world economy in the industrial era since 1780 need to be studied in the framework of an evolutionary model. Such a model starts from a recognition that economic dynamics are mainly determined by economic, political and social institutions and that these, and their interactions, change over time. The only factor in long fluctuations which does not appear to have changed greatly over the last two centuries is the succession, approximately every half century, of technological styles. These, which were defined and described in Chapter 2, are new paradigms or intellectual patterns of the broadest possible relevance, influencing the direction of technological change, which develop in response to the drastic reduction in cost of one or a few key factors of production.