ABSTRACT
It is clear that there was in the early and middle 1850s the first truly international boom. As we see in Table 9.1, world industrial production grew at a rate of 7.6 per cent per annum from 1850 to 1856. 1 All the major economies shared in this rapid expansion. Here at last – it would seem – is a long wave upswing à la Perez: a boom produced by a new style freed to diffuse fast by reforms which were provoked by its own early impact. The trouble was, it did not last. The first truly international boom was ended in 1857 by the first truly international crash, and the next decade, 1856–66, showed growth rates for world industrial production of only 2.8 per cent per annum, before a brief return to rapid growth (4.5 per cent per annum) in 1866–72. Certainly the 1850–72 period as a whole shows a faster growth rate than the next twenty years – but the contrast between what van Duijn calls the ‘second Kondratiev upswing’, 2 and the alleged ‘second Kondratiev downswing’ of 1872–92 is dangerously dependent on the choice of beginnings and ends for the periods compared. It is obviously misleading to start a period in the trough of a Juglar cycle (which 1850 is) and end it at the peak of such a cycle – this makes the growth rate artificially high. For world industrial production this is unavoidable because the data for many countries only go back to 1850. The two major countries for which earlier data is available are Britain and France; if we start our ‘Kondratiev upswings’ at the last Juglar peak before 1850 (Britain, 1845; France, 1847) and finish our ‘Kondratiev downswings’ at the Juglar peak before 1896 (Britain and France, both 1890) the result should be less misleading (see Table 9.2). Growth rates of world industrial production, 1850–1913
|
Juglar period |
% per annum |
Long period |
% per annum |
|---|---|---|---|
|
(1850–56) |
7.6 |
1850–72 |
4.6 |
|
1856–66 |
2.8 |
1872–92 |
3.0 |
|
1866–72 |
4.5 |
||
|
1872–83 |
2.7 |
Long swing |
% per annum |
|
1883–92 |
3.4 |
||
|
1892–1903 |
4.3 |
1856–72 |
3.4 |
|
1903–13 |
4.1 |
1872–92 |
3.0 |
|
Juglar period |
Britain |
France |
Juglar period |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1845–57 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
1847–56 |
|
1857–66 |
3.2 |
0.6 |
1856–66 |
|
1866–73 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1866–72 |
|
1873–83 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1872–62 |
|
1883–90 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
1882–90 |
|
1890-1903 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1890–1903 |
|
1903–13 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
1903–13 |
|
Long period |
Long period |
||
|
1845–72 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
1847–72 |
|
1873–90 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
1872–90 |
|
Juglar period |
Long period |
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
1873–84 |
4.0 |
1873–92 |
4.6 |
|
1884–92 |
5.3 |
1892–1906 |
4.1 |
|
1892–99 |
3.1 |
||
|
1899–1906 |
5.1 |
1884–99 |
4.2 |
|
1906–12 |
2.2 |
1899–1912 |
3.8 |
