ABSTRACT
This chapter concerns prospective energy-demand paths for the United States over the next twenty-five years or so. Its purpose is to develop a set of projections that are credible in terms of their possibility of occurrence, constructed in an analytically sound manner, and faithful to the underlying economic, technological, and policy assumptions upon which they depend. We will begin with a brief reference to several other energy-demand studies and consider their orientation and principal findings. For the purpose of fashioning a long-term projection of U.S. energy demand, we will adopt the results of the detailed inquiry (contained in chapter 5) into three important components of energy use—home heating, automotive transport, and industrial process steam. These results will then be combined with an analysis of other key end-use, energy-consuming categories in order that we may project overall U.S. energy consumption. In the final portion of the chapter we will speculate on other aspects of future energy-demand growth and consider factors that strengthen or weaken one’s confidence in the projections that have been made.
