ABSTRACT
In a report addressed to prospective investors in the State of Alaska's 1961 general obligation bond issue there appeared an appraisal of the present state of the economy and its development prospects. The usual generalizations about future growth were supplemented by an attempt to project population for 1970 and 1980. "As an indicator, it should be noted that the Scandinavian countries of Norway and Sweden lie in the same latitudes as Alaska. Their total area of 298,442 square miles successfully supports a population of approximately 11 million inhabitants. Industrial development in those countries and in Canada has proved that modern technology can overcome adverse climate and geographic conditions." The bond prospectus did not suggest that Alaska might achieve this population density, but compared with Alaska's 1960 population of 226,167, the analogy served as a means of raising the outside limits of hopes as to future growth. Against this background, two sets of projections were made. One, projected directly from an 1880-1960 base period, arrived at an estimate of 365,000 for 1970 and 650,000 for 1980. The second, using the more sharply rising base of 1920-60, arrived at 550,000 for 1970 and 1,800,000 for 1980. "The actual increase may lie within the area defined by the high and low projections." 1
