ABSTRACT
The science of predicting the effects of climate change is still developing. As we learn more, the news tends to get worse. It is widely accepted that higher temperatures will generate more frequent and more powerful weather events – droughts, floods, storms and heat waves. It is also widely expected that they will lead over time to rises in sea-level, changes to rainfall patterns and river flows. These physical effects will have an impact on the livelihoods of people in most parts of the world, and most of that impact will be negative, though some will gain. The effect will be hardest on the poorest, not only because the lottery of climate will work against them, but because they have less protection due to bad governance and poor infrastructure. In some areas, interacting with other problems in society, the consequences of climate change significantly increase the risk of armed conflict and political instability.
