ABSTRACT

Demographers have developed powerful statistical tools for projecting population sizes, growth rates and composition (Haub, 1987, Lee 1978). By making assumptions about future changes in fertility and mortality, one can calculate what any current population will be for some time into the future. Statistical and computer capacities make it possible to make such projections for hundreds and even thousands of years into the future. The accompanying box shows the most recent projections made by the UNDP. It should be noted that these projections typically do not take account of distinct environmental conditions, or possible changes in those conditions. Thus they tend to be environmentally uninformed. 21