ABSTRACT
A great deal of research has been done into the effectiveness of warning systems relating to rapid-onset disasters and military emergencies. 1 Much of this work is equally applicable to famine warning. Four key components have been identified which seem to typify all the most successful systems: 2
Detection, evaluation and prediction of a hazard
This is the most traditional component of a warning system. Most of the “tools” described in chapter 6 relate to this process. Clearly a prerequisite to detection is definition of hazard and, as has been shown, the definition of famine depends upon where one stands in relation to the threat. Defining the hazard is the first basic task of any warning system. Once that is agreed, detection, evaluation and prediction can follow.
Constructing a forecast or warning message
In the past, systems have tended to issue warnings in a form which the senders may understand, but which is certainly not in the “language” of those at whom it is aimed. This is somewhat akin to the salesman who tries to sell you a computer by describing all the latest technology inside it when all you want to know is whether it is capable of producing your reports and budgets.
Five common problems are found with warning messages:
The language is often too technical. Professor Quarantelli from the Institute for Disasters Research at Delaware University maintains that “technical information alone, or eye witness reports, have been shown not to be particularly persuasive in stimulating people to act decisively.” 3
If different warning systems produce conflicting messages, people will ignore the whole package. Nobody wants to believe bad news, so people look for confirmation from other sources. If these conflict, the warning is not reinforced and no action is taken.
Messages often fail to state clearly the exact nature of the impending threat or its implications for the recipient. To warn of impending food shortages is fine, but what does that mean in terms of logistic needs in the country, strain on the health services and the movement of people?
The potential victims of a disaster are often poorly identified. Warning of impending national famine in Ethiopia is of little use when official statistics show that, at most, only 15 per cent of the country's population is likely to be affected.
Finally, even if the warning creates awareness of the impending disaster, people may fail to react. In the Ganges delta, Bangladesh squatters on the newly uncovered land may be well aware of an impending flood, but will take little evasive action because they are more concerned with the threat of losing their land if they flee.
Spreading the warning message
Actually receiving the warning message is a prerequisite to responding to it. Warning systems must contain a communications network which gets the right message to the right people at the right time. Of equal importance is the source of the warning; one issued by a locally- respected community leader will be far more effective in stimulating local action than the same message from a central government office. Equally, if the aim of the message is to cajole a government ministry into action, it will be more persuasive if it comes from official rather than “community” sources.
Often it may need to go to different groups of people, and the system must ensure that networks exist to reach all these groups. Within any community there maybe local officials, emergency services, voluntary bodies, the news media, and the potential victims themselves – all of whom need to receive the message.
Creating effective preparedness and mitigation responses
People commonly respond to disaster warnings in one of five ways:
They ignore the warning
They listen to the warning, but sit tight to see what happens
They try to investigate its accuracy and credibility
They take some sort of immediate action, though often not that suggested
They take the immediate action suggested by the system
Idealized warning system https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315067100/90da1f49-31d8-4ae6-a253-ce0c8fc442ff/content/fig5_1_B.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> Source: Foster, 1980.