ABSTRACT
Current trends in transportation are unsustainable. A struggle for new means of mobility is beginning. Changes are inevitable. Soon after 2020, if not before, growth in the supply of fuel for vehicles will depend on increasing competition among technologies for recovering liquid fuels from natural gas or from ‘unconventional’ oil. To manufacture clean petroleum fuels to protect urban air quality against increasing volumes of vehicle traffic increases in hydrogen inputs will be necessary; fuel and related engine developments will be required. Refining processes that increase the hydrogen content of fuels add to CO2 emissions. The transport sector will be required to contribute to the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions required under the Kyoto Protocol. Even if the Kyoto target reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) are not met, policies can be expected to push in that direction. This will involve going beyond the 20–30% improvements envisaged by current voluntary commitments such as those by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA) in Europe, since such improvements extend trends which are already embedded in ‘business as usual’ projections.
