ABSTRACT
Building upon the analysis of long-term energy scenarios in Chapter 4 and the options for action set out in Chapter 5, the present chapter proposes key policy objectives and activities, with time frames for their implementation (Fig. 7-1). These objectives and activities aim to prevent ecological and socio-economic guard rails being overstepped, and to return any non-sustainable state beyond the guard rails to a state within them (Fig. 7-2). The objectives and activities recommended here by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) point to the direction that needs to be taken to permit a global transformation of energy systems towards sustainability. In view of the uncertainties that attach to all assessments of future developments, it will remain essential to continuously review the objectives, take into consideration new scientific findings and technological advances, and adjust the objectives and activities accordingly. The goals and measures set out here constitute key elements of the World Energy Charter proposed by the Council (Section 5.3.2). There is a particular need for action in the coming 10–20 years. That period presents the main window of opportunity to transform global energy systems. The intended effects will only occur with a certain time lag. This lag makes swift action all the more urgent. The German federal government should make use of its international weight, taking all steps to vigorously advance the transformation of energy systems within the context of global governance. The transformation roadmap of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). CDM Clean Development Mechanism, CHP Combined Heat and Power, GDP Gross Domstic Product, GEF Global Environment Facility, IPSE Intergovernmental Panel on Sustainable Energy, ODA Official Development Assistance, OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, WERCP World Energy Research Coordination Programme. https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315071961/a5f15500-688c-419d-a3f6-2a77e07b7f34/content/fig7_1_C.jpg" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> Source: WBGU Connection between guard rails, measures and future system development. The figure shows possible states of a system in terms of its sustainability, plotted over time. The current state of a system relative to the guard rail can be in the green area (the ‘sustainable area' according to best available knowledge) or in the red area (the ‘non-sustainable area'). If a system is in the non-sustainable area, it must be steered by appropriate measures in such a way that it moves ‘through’ the guard rail into the sustainable area. The guard rail is thus permeable from the non-sustainable side. If a system is in the sustainable area, there are no further requirements upon it at first. The system can develop in the free interplay of forces. Only if the system, moving within the sustainable area, is on course for collision with a guard rail, must measures be taken to prevent it crossing the rail. The guard rail is thus impermeable from the sustainable side. As guard rails can shift due to future advances in knowledge, compliance with present guard rails is only a necessary criterion of sustainability, but not a sufficient one. https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315071961/a5f15500-688c-419d-a3f6-2a77e07b7f34/content/fig7_2_C.jpg" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> Source: WBGU
