ABSTRACT
In the final stage of the analysis we group households according to three main lines of inquiry which we explain below. In order to know which households are likely to the most vulnerable to the effects of cyclones, we need to be able to forecast the capacity of households to withstand the effects of cyclones by their potential ability to recover from them – and we can estimate this by tracing the recovery of the household groups after the cyclone in 1977 until 1988. In order to predict vulnerability we need to know if households with the least capacity for recovery and the least capacity for improvement have common characteristics. Using the pre-cyclone position as the base line we will see what happened to the different types of household over the period, taking the income-equivalents from their investments as the basic measure, all converted to 1981 prices.
