ABSTRACT
T h r o u g h o u t his tory , unce r t a in ty a n d anxie ty have a t tended the rise of a n e w power . V i o l e n t confl ic t has often f o l l o w e d . The g r o w i n g economic a n d m i l i t a r y p o w e r of Ch ina , the w o r l d ' s mos t p o p u l o u s country , w i l l be a centra l ques t ion for the Asia-Pacific r eg ion-and for U.S. fo re ign p o l i cy-at the b e g i n n i n g of the next c e n t u r y
M a n y observers have compared the rise o f C h i n a to that of G e r m a n y be fore the First W o r l d War. For A r t h u r W a l d r o n , "sooner or later, i f present t rends cont inue , w a r is probable i n A s i a . . . Ch ina t oday is ac t ive ly seek i n g to scare the U n i t e d States a w a y f r o m East As i a rather as G e r m a n y sought to f r igh ten B r i t a i n before W o r l d War I b y b u i l d i n g its ' r i skf lee t ' . " 1
A c c o r d i n g to Robert Kagan , "the Chinese leadership v i e w s the w o r l d t oday i n m u c h the same w a y Kaiser W i l h e l m I I d i d a cen tu ry ago . . . C h i nese leaders chafe at the constraints o n t h e m a n d w o r r y that they m u s t change the rules of the in t e rna t iona l system before the in te rna t iona l sys t e m changes t h e m . " 2 Others b l ame the U.S. m o r e t h a n Ch ina for the c o m i n g confl ict . W i l l i a m Pfaff argues that "there is n o balance of p o w e r i n As i a t o d a y i n the classic sense. There is an A m e r i c a n m i l i t a r y a n d p o l i t i c a l pre dominance tha t Ch ina wishes to break. China ' s n a t u r a l a m b i t i o n to restore i ts o w n p r i m a c y ac tua l ly tends to create a balance that n o w is a b s e n t . . . I n th is perspect ive, i t is the U n i t e d States that increas ingly is the destabi l iz i n g factor i n East A s i a . " 3 D a v i d Shambaugh po in t s ou t that "s ignif icant differences i n t r a d i t i o n a l statecraft, m i l i t a r y t r ad i t ions , a n d scientific es tabl ishments . . . suggest C h i n a m a y be more ben ign , b u t the sheer m a g n i tude o f C h i n a . . . c o m b i n e d w i t h its intense n a t i o n a l i s m a n d i r redent i s t
Originally published as "China's Re-emergence and the Future of Asia-Pacific, Survival vol . 39, (1997-1998): 65-79. Reprinted w i t h permission.
