ABSTRACT
Chapter 14 focuses on the various scenarios for predicting long-term population trends in China based on the 6th census data. It reviews the prediction results made by past population planning studies, and points out the common problem of these studies being that they were all in denial of the very low fertility rate. The previous studies all used the published fertility by the government as the parameter for population projections and, as a result, the predictions were far from reality. The current study compares and reviews long-term population prediction results. There are four prediction scenarios with different fertility rates, each demonstrating how a particular fertility rate affects the long-term population growth projection. A scenario that maintains a very low fertility rate for 30 years is also included.
